Among the main characteristics of the Brazilian electrical system are: continental dimensions; high energy consumption growth rates; large share of renewable sources, with the predominance of hydroelectricity, and with increasing participation of so-called new renewables, such as wind and solar. Additionally, it presents a relevant hydrological, temporal and spatial diversity, allowing the complementary energy between the regions. These characteristics have motivated Cepel since its inception to develop and maintain in the state of the art an innovative and integrated chain of methodologies and computational models for the energy area and that guides the operation of the Brazilian electroenergetic system and the planning of its expansion.
This chain of methodologies and computational programs - based on mathematical techniques of optimization and simulation, considering the treatment of uncertainties - integrates long, medium and short-term horizons, enabling the definition of coordinated plans of expansion and operation of the electric system on a sustainable basis. They are official models used by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), Sectorial Institutions such as the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL), Energy Research Company (EPE), National Electric Systems Operator (ONS) and Electric Energy Trading Chamber - CCEE, Eletrobras System Companies, electric energy concessionaires and sector agents. Some of the models undergo a wide and open validation process, and their use must be approved by ANEEL or CPAMP / CNPE - Permanent Commission for Analysis of Methodologies and Computation Programs of the Electric Sector, coordinated by MME and linked to the National Council of Energy Policy.
The set of computational models developed by the Center for expansion planning, from 30 to 50 years ahead, has contributed to the diversification of the Brazilian energy matrix. In addition, with the refined planning for the 10-year horizon, a reference works program is reached, which is aimed at the implementation of new generation and transmission projects contracted through public auctions. Part of the models also carries out the transition to the planning and scheduling of the operation, with a horizon ranging from 5 years to weeks, with monthly, weekly and hourly disaggregation. The use of these models of optimization / simulation guarantees the coordinated operation and increases the production of electric energy by 20%.
This chain also includes models for the forecasting and generation of synthetic flow scenarios for the various hydroelectric and wind and wind power generation; models for flood prevention studies; long-term and short-term market forecasting models; and models to support the decision making of investments in energy generation and transmission projects. Methodologies are also developed to incorporate the environmental dimension into the various stages of the planning and operation process of electric sector enterprises, including methods, criteria, indicators and tools, especially for the sustainable development of hydroelectricity and business sustainability.
This chain of methodologies and computational models is essential in strategic sectoral activities, such as expansion planning, operation planning and scheduling, determination of the settlement price of differences, commercialization of energy, definition and calculation of the physical guarantee of generation enterprises, and development of guidelines for energy auctions.
Associated Research Lines are:
· Energy Expansion Planning
- Generation Expansion Planning;
- the Sustainable Development of Hydroelectricity;
. Energy Operation Planning
- the Long and Medium Term Planning of the Energy Operation;
- the Short-Term Planning and Daily Schedule of the Energy Operation;
· Stochastic Hydrology, Water Resources and Winds;
· Financial Analysis of Projects and Tariffs;
· Computational Techniques Applied to the Energy Area.